Oklahoma City’s decision to trade Luguentz Dort to the Atlanta Hawks marks one of the offseason’s most intricate maneuvers. The Thunder receive three future second‑round picks, the Hawks add a premier defensive wing, and Dallas lands former No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher. It fits an explicitly reported salary‑clearing strategy from OKC, which currently holds identical preseason title odds to San Antonio at 260.
In the 2026‑27 preseason model, both the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder project at 0.227 title‑probability with Elo marks of 1750 and 1746, respectively. The New York Knicks (0.0819) and Boston Celtics (0.0585) round out the early upper tier. Detroit follows at 0.0315, signaling a tightly bunched contender field entering fall.
The Memphis Grizzlies close last season ranked 28th by Elo (1274) after six straight losses capped by a 101‑132 defeat to Houston. Their recent swing of –58.4 places them squarely in rebuild territory, yet rookie Cedric Coward flashed promise with a 28‑6‑5 Summer League outing. Day‑to‑day notes for Kentavious Caldwell‑Pope, Walter Clayton Jr., and Zach Edey suggest a roster still finding health and cohesion ahead of October.
Seventy‑five of seventy‑six games are logged in Las Vegas, where San Antonio, Golden State, and Orlando each stand 4‑1. The final slate includes Golden State vs. Memphis, giving Coward another platform against a top‑tier group. With the Spurs already leading both the stat sheet and the models, July basketball is offering an early snapshot of September expectations.
"San Antonio and Oklahoma City each carry a 0.227 chance to win the 2027 title — dead even at the top."
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